FUKUSHIMA, Japan — When Unit 2 began to shake, Hiroyuki Kohno’s first hunch was that something was wrong with the turbines. He paused for a moment, then went back to logging the day’s radioactivity readings.
He expected it to pass. Until the shakes became jolts.
As sirens wailed, he ran to an open space, away from the walls, and raced down a long corridor with two colleagues. Parts of the ceiling fell around them. Outside, he found more pandemonium.
“People were shouting about a tsunami,” he said. “At that point, I really thought I might die.”
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EDITOR’S NOTE: It was an ordinary Friday afternoon, and then the shaking began – harbinger of a nuclear nightmare that rages on, three months later. A moment-by-moment account of the crucial first 24 hours after an earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi plant.
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Breathless, Kohno climbed a small hill and turned to look back.
Dr. George E. P. Box, noted statistician and quality expert famously said “All models are wrong, some are useful.” Dr. George Copa, one of my former advisors at the University of Minnesota always told me “Start with a model.” Consultants love models. Each model is a chance to demonstrate that we have a “new” theory and that our “new” theory is better than your old theory. My model is better than your model can mean thousands if not millions in new consulting fees. 